My Scenario
FIRE Number
¥61,207,550
Target portfolio at My Scenario
Years to FIRE
4.0
FIRE age: 53
Progress
71%
¥43,734,250 of ¥61,207,550
Monte Carlo Success
100.0%
10000 simulations
NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥36,780/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥184,669/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI.
iDeCo contribution (¥67,000/mo) exceeds the legal cap of ¥23,000/mo for a company employee. Excess contributions will not receive tax relief.
Cryptocurrency is included in your accessible portfolio at current value. Crypto gains in Japan are taxed as miscellaneous income (雑所得) at up to 55% — factor in the tax cost when planning liquidation.
Education commitments are modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Do not include these costs in monthly_expenses_jpy.
Your stated spending (¥4,560,000/yr) is more than your chosen 4.0% withdrawal rate funds against your current portfolio (¥1,749,370/yr, before NHI). Sustaining your stated spending would actually mean drawing at ~10.5% pre-pension (~¥2,847,410/yr short) — you'd need a bigger portfolio, a higher withdrawal rate, or lower spending.
Your Monte Carlo-implied safe withdrawal rate is ~5.8% at a 90% target success rate under your current return/volatility assumptions.
FIRE Variants Comparison
💰 Your WR budget (before pension)
¥142,715/mo
💰 Your WR budget (after pension at 65)
¥321,755/mo
Portfolio ¥43,734,250 × 4.0% WR = ¥145,780/mo, minus NHI ¥3,065/mo, plus pension ¥191,363/mo (when it starts). This is what Monte Carlo below actually simulates withdrawing — not your stated spending, shown for comparison in Retirement Cash Flow below.
🌿 Lean FIRE
¥38,707,550
✓
spend ¥305,000/mo · withdraw ¥129,025/mo from portfolio
spend ¥305,000/mo · withdraw ¥129,025/mo from portfolio
🔥 Regular FIRE
¥61,207,550
spend ¥380,000/mo · withdraw ¥204,025/mo from portfolio
spend ¥380,000/mo · withdraw ¥204,025/mo from portfolio
💎 Fat FIRE
¥98,707,550
spend ¥505,000/mo · withdraw ¥329,025/mo from portfolio
spend ¥505,000/mo · withdraw ¥329,025/mo from portfolio
⛵ Coast FIRE
¥28,039,883
✓
spend ¥380,000/mo (same as regular)
spend ¥380,000/mo (same as regular)
☕ Barista FIRE
¥61,207,550
spend ¥380,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥204,025/mo from portfolio
spend ¥380,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥204,025/mo from portfolio
Retirement Cash Flow
WR Budget (funded lifestyle)
¥1,749,370
Pension Income (net)
−¥2,296,367
NHI Premium (before pension)
¥36,780
NHI Premium (with pension)
¥184,669
Peak Education Commitment
JPY 1,040,400
Pre-pension / Education-period Need
JPY 5,637,180
Post-education Steady Need
JPY 2,448,302
Net from Portfolio / yr
¥184,669
This is what Monte Carlo actually simulates withdrawing — the same for every FIRE variant, since it comes from your portfolio and chosen withdrawal rate, not stated expenses.
Year-1 Residence Tax Shock
¥311,600
Your Stated Spending
¥4,560,000
Deemed Withdrawal Rate (pre-pension)
10.5%
vs chosen 4.0%
Education Commitments
Temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Last scheduled education year: 2029.
| Calendar Year | Total | Beneficiaries |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | JPY 1,000,000 | Beneficiary 1: JPY 1,000,000 |
| 2028 | JPY 1,020,000 | Beneficiary 1: JPY 1,020,000 |
| 2029 | JPY 1,040,400 | Beneficiary 1: JPY 1,040,400 |
Projected Balances at Retirement
新NISA
¥64,761,826
Tax-free, fully liquid
iDeCo
¥33,209,308
Accessible at FIRE age
Taxable / Cash
¥10,914,372
Gains taxed at 20.315%
Portfolio Survival — Monte Carlo 100.0% success
Runs 10,000 retirement scenarios with randomised annual returns — each one models a different possible future. The lines and shaded bands below show how your portfolio value spreads across all those outcomes.
Median (p50) — your expected middle outcome; half of all simulations finish above this line
p25–p75 band — the middle 50% of outcomes; a realistic planning range
p10–p90 band — 80% of all scenarios fall inside this range
p90 (green dotted) — optimistic ceiling: only 10% of runs end higher than this
p10 (red dotted) — stress-test floor: only 10% of runs end lower; plan so this stays above ¥0
Japan note:
The success rate above measures whether your chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable — not whether your stated living expenses are covered. Check the deemed withdrawal rate in Retirement Cash Flow to see if your chosen rate actually funds your stated spending.
Simulates drawing ¥1,749,370/yr (4.0% of ¥43,734,250) — not your stated expenses.
MC-implied safe withdrawal rate
~5.8%
(success target: 90%;
chosen: 4.0%)
Sensitivity Analysis Impact on Years to FIRE
Each variable in your plan is shifted ±20% from your input value. The bar shows how many years earlier or later you would reach FIRE as a result. Bars at the top have the biggest impact — those are the levers most worth pulling.
Red bars (right →) — pessimistic: this variable getting 20% worse adds years to FIRE
Green bars (← left) — optimistic: this variable improving by 20% removes years from FIRE
Centre line — your current base case; bars extend left and right from here
Japan note:
In Japan, monthly expenses and withdrawal rate typically show the longest bars — they matter more than investment return assumptions. Reducing living costs or lowering your withdrawal rate often shortens your FIRE timeline more than chasing higher returns in Japan's lower-yield environment.
Net Worth Projection
A deterministic year-by-year projection using your fixed return assumptions — not randomised like Monte Carlo. Shows the single expected path: how your portfolio grows while working, and how it draws down in retirement. Hover any point to see the exact portfolio value at that age.
Blue solid line — accumulation phase: your portfolio growing through monthly contributions and investment returns
Amber dashed line — drawdown phase: portfolio being spent in retirement; slope flattens once pension income begins
Japan note:
The drawdown slope accounts for nenkin (年金) income starting at your claim age — offsetting withdrawals and slowing the decline. The first retirement year may show a sharper drop due to the year-1 residence tax shock (住民税), which is billed on the prior year's working income.
Year-by-Year Cash Flow ⬇ CSV
| Age | Phase | WR Budget | Pension | NHI | Education | From Portfolio | Savings | Portfolio | iDeCo (locked) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥40,175,962 | ¥7,629,000 |
| 50 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥43,264,760 | ¥8,814,450 |
| 51 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥46,507,998 | ¥10,059,172 |
| 52 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥49,913,397 | ¥11,366,130 |
| 53 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥53,489,066 | ¥12,738,436 |
| 54 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥57,243,519 | ¥14,179,357 |
| 55 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥61,185,694 | ¥15,692,324 |
| 56 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥65,324,978 | ¥17,280,940 |
| 57 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥69,671,226 | ¥18,948,987 |
| 58 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥74,234,787 | ¥20,700,436 |
| 59 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,884,000 | ¥79,026,526 | ¥22,539,457 |
| 60 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,080,000 | ¥107,460,807 | — |
| 61 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,080,000 | ¥113,913,847 | — |
| 62 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,080,000 | ¥120,689,539 | — |
| 63 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,080,000 | ¥127,804,015 | — |
| 64 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,080,000 | ¥135,274,215 | — |
| 65 | 🔥 | ¥5,410,968 | ¥2,296,367 | ¥184,669 | - | ¥3,610,870 +住民税 | — | ¥137,750,684 | — |
| 66 | 🔥 | ¥5,492,132 | ¥2,319,330 | ¥187,044 | - | ¥3,359,846 | — | ¥140,589,618 | — |
| 67 | 🔥 | ¥5,574,514 | ¥2,342,523 | ¥189,444 | - | ¥3,421,435 | — | ¥143,494,715 | — |
| 68 | 🔥 | ¥5,658,132 | ¥2,365,949 | ¥191,868 | - | ¥3,484,051 | — | ¥146,467,926 | — |
| 69 | 🔥 | ¥5,743,004 | ¥2,389,608 | ¥194,316 | - | ¥3,547,712 | — | ¥149,511,270 | — |
| 70 | 🔥 | ¥5,829,149 | ¥2,413,504 | ¥196,788 | - | ¥3,612,433 | — | ¥152,626,844 | — |
| 71 | 🔥 | ¥5,916,586 | ¥2,437,639 | ¥199,285 | - | ¥3,678,232 | — | ¥155,816,819 | — |
| 72 | 🔥 | ¥6,005,335 | ¥2,462,016 | ¥201,807 | - | ¥3,745,126 | — | ¥159,083,449 | — |
| 73 | 🔥 | ¥6,095,415 | ¥2,486,636 | ¥204,355 | - | ¥3,813,134 | — | ¥162,429,070 | — |
| 74 | 🔥 | ¥6,186,846 | ¥2,511,502 | ¥231,448 | - | ¥3,906,792 | — | ¥165,831,586 | — |
| 75 | 🔥 | ¥6,279,649 | ¥2,536,617 | ¥234,046 | - | ¥3,977,078 | — | ¥169,316,929 | — |
| 76 | 🔥 | ¥6,373,844 | ¥2,561,983 | ¥236,671 | - | ¥4,048,532 | — | ¥172,887,658 | — |
| 77 | 🔥 | ¥6,469,451 | ¥2,587,603 | ¥239,322 | - | ¥4,121,170 | — | ¥176,546,432 | — |
| 78 | 🔥 | ¥6,566,493 | ¥2,613,479 | ¥241,999 | - | ¥4,195,013 | — | ¥180,296,008 | — |
| 79 | 🔥 | ¥6,664,990 | ¥2,639,614 | ¥244,703 | - | ¥4,270,079 | — | ¥184,139,249 | — |
| 80 | 🔥 | ¥6,764,965 | ¥2,666,010 | ¥247,434 | - | ¥4,346,389 | — | ¥188,079,126 | — |
| 81 | 🔥 | ¥6,866,440 | ¥2,692,670 | ¥250,192 | - | ¥4,423,962 | — | ¥192,118,724 | — |
| 82 | 🔥 | ¥6,969,436 | ¥2,719,597 | ¥252,979 | - | ¥4,502,818 | — | ¥196,261,248 | — |
| 83 | 🔥 | ¥7,073,978 | ¥2,746,793 | ¥255,793 | - | ¥4,582,978 | — | ¥200,510,026 | — |
| 84 | 🔥 | ¥7,180,088 | ¥2,774,261 | ¥258,635 | - | ¥4,664,462 | — | ¥204,868,515 | — |
| 85 | 🔥 | ¥7,287,789 | ¥2,802,004 | ¥261,505 | - | ¥4,747,290 | — | ¥209,340,308 | — |
| 86 | 🔥 | ¥7,397,106 | ¥2,830,024 | ¥264,405 | - | ¥4,831,487 | — | ¥213,929,134 | — |
| 87 | 🔥 | ¥7,508,062 | ¥2,858,324 | ¥267,333 | - | ¥4,917,071 | — | ¥218,638,874 | — |
| 88 | 🔥 | ¥7,620,683 | ¥2,886,907 | ¥270,290 | - | ¥5,004,066 | — | ¥223,473,557 | — |
| 89 | 🔥 | ¥7,734,993 | ¥2,915,776 | ¥273,277 | - | ¥5,092,494 | — | ¥228,437,373 | — |
| 90 | 🔥 | ¥7,851,018 | ¥2,944,934 | ¥276,294 | - | ¥5,182,378 | — | ¥233,534,676 | — |
| 91 | 🔥 | ¥7,968,784 | ¥2,974,383 | ¥279,341 | - | ¥5,273,742 | — | ¥238,769,994 | — |
| 92 | 🔥 | ¥8,088,315 | ¥3,004,127 | ¥282,418 | - | ¥5,366,606 | — | ¥244,148,037 | — |
| 93 | 🔥 | ¥8,209,640 | ¥3,034,168 | ¥285,526 | - | ¥5,460,998 | — | ¥249,673,700 | — |
| 94 | 🔥 | ¥8,332,785 | ¥3,064,510 | ¥288,666 | - | ¥5,556,941 | — | ¥255,352,075 | — |
| 95 | 🔥 | ¥8,457,777 | ¥3,095,155 | ¥291,837 | - | ¥5,654,459 | — | ¥261,188,459 | — |
| 96 | 🔥 | ¥8,584,643 | ¥3,126,107 | ¥295,040 | - | ¥5,753,576 | — | ¥267,188,363 | — |
| 97 | 🔥 | ¥8,713,413 | ¥3,157,368 | ¥298,030 | - | ¥5,854,075 | — | ¥273,357,764 | — |
| 98 | 🔥 | ¥8,844,114 | ¥3,188,942 | ¥300,480 | - | ¥5,955,652 | — | ¥279,703,211 | — |
Current Tax Summary
Income Tax (所得税)
¥115,400
Residence Tax (住民税)
¥235,600
Social Insurance (社会保険)
¥900,000
Effective Rate (tax + SI ÷ gross)
17.9%
Foreigners Mode
Information
No DTA country specified. If your home country has a tax treaty with Japan, set it in your profile to see treaty-specific provisions.
Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告.
Overseas brokerage/bank assets ¥12,750,000 ($85,000 USD): all income and gains from these accounts must be reported on your Japanese 確定申告. Use the foreign tax credit (外国税額控除) to offset any foreign withholding tax.
Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits.
These notes are informational only and not legal or tax advice. Consult a Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) for your specific situation.