# FIRE Report — My Scenario

> **Generated:** 2026-10-19  
> **Scenario:** My Scenario  
> **Region:** Tokyo  
> **FIRE variant:** Regular  
> **Withdrawal rate:** 4.0%

---


## Executive Summary

| Metric                | Value               | Notes                       |
| --------------------- | ------------------- | --------------------------- |
| FIRE Number           | ¥61,207,550         | Portfolio needed at 4.0% WR |
| Current Portfolio     | ¥43,734,250         | 71.5% of FIRE number        |
| Years to FIRE         | 4.0 years           | Projected FIRE age: 53      |
| Coast FIRE Number     | ¥28,039,883         | Reached ✅                   |
| MC Portfolio Survival | 100.0% ✅ (on track) | 10,000 simulations          |


## Monthly Drawdown Capacity (WR Budget)

Your current portfolio of **¥43,734,250** at **4.0% WR** supports the following monthly draw — this is what Monte Carlo actually simulates, not your stated spending:

| Phase               | From Portfolio | Pension Tops Up | Total Available | Your Stated Spend | Headroom               |
| ------------------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------- | ----------------- | ---------------------- |
| Pre-pension (49–64) | ¥142,715/mo    | —               | ¥142,715/mo     | ¥380,000/mo       | ✅ −¥237,285/mo surplus |
| Post-pension (65+)  | ¥145,780/mo    | +¥191,363/mo    | ¥321,754/mo     | ¥380,000/mo       | ✅ −¥58,246/mo surplus  |

**Deemed withdrawal rate** (the rate your stated spending would actually require against your current portfolio): **10.5%** pre-pension, **5.6%** once pension starts — compare to your chosen **4.0%**.

> **Interpretation:** Your stated expenses of **¥380,000/mo** currently exceed what your chosen withdrawal rate funds by **¥237,285/mo**. Continued saving, a higher withdrawal rate, lower expenses, or waiting until pension income starts at age 65 closes the gap.

---

### ⚠️ Warnings

> ⚠️ NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥36,780/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥184,669/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI.
>
> ⚠️ iDeCo contribution (¥67,000/mo) exceeds the legal cap of ¥23,000/mo for a company employee. Excess contributions will not receive tax relief.
>
> ⚠️ Cryptocurrency is included in your accessible portfolio at current value. Crypto gains in Japan are taxed as miscellaneous income (雑所得) at up to 55% — factor in the tax cost when planning liquidation.
>
> ⚠️ Education commitments are modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Do not include these costs in monthly_expenses_jpy.
>
> ⚠️ Your stated spending (¥4,560,000/yr) is more than your chosen 4.0% withdrawal rate funds against your current portfolio (¥1,749,370/yr, before NHI). Sustaining your stated spending would actually mean drawing at ~10.5% pre-pension (~¥2,847,410/yr short) — you'd need a bigger portfolio, a higher withdrawal rate, or lower spending.
>
> ⚠️ Your Monte Carlo-implied safe withdrawal rate is ~5.8% at a 90% target success rate under your current return/volatility assumptions.
>

---


## Current Situation


### Personal

- **Current age:** 49
- **Target retirement age:** 65
- **Years to retirement:** 16
- **Employment type:** Company Employee


### Income

- **Annual gross income:** ¥7,000,000
- **Social insurance paid:** ¥900,000
- **Spouse income:** ¥6,000,000
- **Dependents:** 2


### Current Portfolio

| Account              | Balance                   | Notes                  |
| -------------------- | ------------------------- | ---------------------- |
| 新NISA                | ¥18,000,000               | Tax-free, fully liquid |
| iDeCo                | ¥6,500,000                | Locked until age 60    |
| Taxable brokerage    | ¥5,000,000                | Gains taxed at 20.315% |
| Cash savings         | ¥500,000                  |                        |
| Foreign assets       | $85,000 USD = ¥12,750,000 | @ ¥150/USD             |
| Cryptocurrency       | ¥2,000,000                |                        |
| **Total accessible** | **¥43,734,250**           | iDeCo included         |


### Monthly Cash Flow

- **Monthly expenses:** ¥250,000
- **Recurring annual expenses excluding education:** ¥4,560,000
- **Monthly NISA contribution (tsumitate):** ¥90,000
- **iDeCo monthly contribution:** ¥67,000
- **Total monthly savings:** ¥157,000


### Education Commitments

Education is modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses.

| Beneficiary   | Annual Cost | Years     | Inflation | Category  |
| ------------- | ----------- | --------- | --------- | --------- |
| Beneficiary 1 | ¥1,000,000  | 2027-2029 | 2.0%      | education |

| Calendar Year | Total      | Beneficiaries             |
| ------------- | ---------- | ------------------------- |
| 2027          | ¥1,000,000 | Beneficiary 1: ¥1,000,000 |
| 2028          | ¥1,020,000 | Beneficiary 1: ¥1,020,000 |
| 2029          | ¥1,040,400 | Beneficiary 1: ¥1,040,400 |

- **Total scheduled education:** ¥3,060,400
- **Education ends after:** 2029


### Real Estate

- **Japan property value:** ¥60,000,000
- **Mortgage balance:** ¥0
- **Monthly mortgage payment:** ¥0

---


## FIRE Projections


### FIRE Number Breakdown

This sizes your **savings target** from your stated spending — it does not drive Monte Carlo, which simulates your actual portfolio at your chosen withdrawal rate instead (see Monthly Drawdown Capacity above and the Monte Carlo section below).

| Component                     | Annual (JPY)    | Notes                                                  |
| ----------------------------- | --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ |
| Retirement expenses (Regular) | ¥4,560,000      | ¥380,000/month — your stated spending goal             |
| Less: pension income          | −¥2,296,367     | Claim age 65                                           |
| Plus: NHI premium             | ¥184,669        | Income-based; pre-pension years ≈ ¥36,780 (軽減 minimum) |
| = Net portfolio need          | ¥2,448,302      | ÷ 4.0% WR                                              |
| **FIRE number**               | **¥61,207,550** |                                                        |

> ⚠️ **Year-1 residence tax shock:** ¥311,600 — this extra cost is due in your first retirement year on top of regular expenses.


### Projected Account Balances at Retirement

| Account        | Balance     | Notes                      |
| -------------- | ----------- | -------------------------- |
| 新NISA          | ¥64,761,826 | Tax-free, fully accessible |
| iDeCo          | ¥33,209,308 | Accessible at FIRE         |
| Taxable / Cash | ¥10,914,372 | Gains taxed at 20.315%     |


### FIRE Variants

| Variant      | Target      | Status                                             |
| ------------ | ----------- | -------------------------------------------------- |
| Full FIRE    | ¥61,207,550 | 71.5% — 4.0 years                                  |
| Coast FIRE   | ¥28,039,883 | Reached ✅                                          |
| Barista FIRE | ¥61,207,550 | Smaller target if supplemented by part-time income |

---


## Monte Carlo Simulation

- **Simulations run:** 10,000
- **Portfolio survival rate:** 100.0%
- **MC-implied safe withdrawal rate (90% target):** ~5.8%
- **Mean return assumption:** 4.5%
- **Volatility assumption:** 15.0%
- **Simulation horizon:** 40 years

**What the success rate means:**

In 10,000 simulated market paths, 100.0% kept the portfolio above ¥0 for the full 40-year retirement horizon. A simulation *fails* when a bad sequence of returns early in retirement (the 'sequence-of-returns risk' window — amplified 1.5× in the first 5 years) permanently shrinks the portfolio so that ongoing withdrawals eventually exhaust it.

Each individual path represents one possible future. The spread between p10 and p90 shows the range from worst-case to optimistic outcomes across all simulations.


**Why this differs from your years-to-FIRE:**

The FIRE number and years-to-FIRE use a *single fixed return* every year — exactly the expected average, no volatility, no bad years. That is the right model for a savings roadmap: it tells you whether your current trajectory gets you there. The Monte Carlo tests a different question: what if returns are *not* average? The worst time to get unlucky is early in retirement, because losses then have 40 years to compound negatively against ongoing withdrawals. A portfolio can be 'at the FIRE number' deterministically but still fail in 30% of simulated paths because a 15% volatility environment produces meaningful probability of exactly that bad-early scenario.


**Your survival rate is solid.** At ≥90%, the probability that your portfolio outlasts a 40-year retirement under realistic volatility is high. The main remaining risk is inflation — consider maintaining a small cash buffer in early retirement to avoid selling equities at a bad time.


### Portfolio Percentiles at Key Retirement Years

**p10 (stress):** 10% of simulations are at or below this value. **Median (p50):** Half of simulations exceed this. **p90 (optimistic):** Only 10% exceed this — a good year.

| Year | Age | p10 (stress) | p25         | Median (p50) | p75          | p90 (optimistic) |
| ---- | --- | ------------ | ----------- | ------------ | ------------ | ---------------- |
| 0    | 65  | ¥43,734,250  | ¥43,734,250 | ¥43,734,250  | ¥43,734,250  | ¥43,734,250      |
| 5    | 70  | ¥27,110,986  | ¥36,391,612 | ¥49,814,271  | ¥68,058,851  | ¥90,745,739      |
| 10   | 75  | ¥30,015,107  | ¥42,163,305 | ¥61,143,631  | ¥87,969,441  | ¥124,839,222     |
| 15   | 80  | ¥33,190,621  | ¥48,011,258 | ¥73,169,468  | ¥112,450,033 | ¥165,994,747     |
| 20   | 85  | ¥36,792,003  | ¥55,353,074 | ¥86,716,246  | ¥140,593,964 | ¥217,873,232     |
| 25   | 90  | ¥40,714,402  | ¥62,963,075 | ¥103,501,688 | ¥176,090,062 | ¥280,553,607     |
| 30   | 95  | ¥45,020,445  | ¥72,111,635 | ¥125,055,275 | ¥217,348,791 | ¥361,680,168     |

---


## Sensitivity Analysis

Each variable was shifted ±20% from the base value. The table shows how many years earlier (optimistic) or later (pessimistic) FIRE would be reached. Variables are ranked by total impact — focus on the top rows.

| Variable                           | Base    | Pessimistic (+yrs) | Optimistic (−yrs) |               |
| ---------------------------------- | ------- | ------------------ | ----------------- | ------------- |
| Monthly expenses (¥380,000)        | 4.0 yrs | +4.2 yrs           | −4.0 yrs          | ↑ more impact |
| Withdrawal rate (4.0%)             | 4.0 yrs | +2.9 yrs           | −2.2 yrs          | ↑ more impact |
| Mortgage rate — Mortgage 1 (1.20%) | 4.0 yrs | +1.5 yrs           | −1.7 yrs          |               |
| USD/JPY (150)                      | 4.0 yrs | +0.6 yrs           | −0.6 yrs          |               |
| Investment return (5.0%)           | 4.0 yrs | +0.5 yrs           | −0.4 yrs          |               |
| Monthly savings (¥157,000)         | 4.0 yrs | +0.4 yrs           | −0.3 yrs          |               |

---


## Net Worth Trajectory (Key Milestones)

Fixed-return deterministic projection. Hover the chart in the app for year-by-year details.

| Age | Phase        | Portfolio Value | Notes         |
| --- | ------------ | --------------- | ------------- |
| 49  | Accumulation | ¥40,175,962     |               |
| 54  | Accumulation | ¥57,243,519     |               |
| 59  | Accumulation | ¥79,026,526     |               |
| 64  | Accumulation | ¥135,274,215    |               |
| 65  | Retirement   | ¥137,750,684    | ← FIRE target |
| 69  | Retirement   | ¥149,511,270    |               |
| 74  | Retirement   | ¥165,831,586    |               |
| 79  | Retirement   | ¥184,139,249    |               |
| 84  | Retirement   | ¥204,868,515    |               |
| 89  | Retirement   | ¥228,437,373    |               |
| 94  | Retirement   | ¥255,352,075    |               |
| 98  | Retirement   | ¥279,703,211    |               |


### Retirement Cash Flow — First 15 Years

Expenses inflate at the retirement expense growth rate; NHI is recomputed each year from actual taxable income (pension after 公的年金等控除 — portfolio withdrawals are not income). Download the full table as CSV from the scenario page.

| Age | Expenses   | Pension (net) | NHI      | Education | From Portfolio | Portfolio EOY | Notes                               |
| --- | ---------- | ------------- | -------- | --------- | -------------- | ------------- | ----------------------------------- |
| 65  | ¥5,410,968 | ¥2,296,367    | ¥184,669 | -         | ¥3,610,870     | ¥137,750,684  | incl. year-1 residence tax ¥311,600 |
| 66  | ¥5,492,132 | ¥2,319,330    | ¥187,044 | -         | ¥3,359,846     | ¥140,589,618  |                                     |
| 67  | ¥5,574,514 | ¥2,342,523    | ¥189,444 | -         | ¥3,421,435     | ¥143,494,715  |                                     |
| 68  | ¥5,658,132 | ¥2,365,949    | ¥191,868 | -         | ¥3,484,051     | ¥146,467,926  |                                     |
| 69  | ¥5,743,004 | ¥2,389,608    | ¥194,316 | -         | ¥3,547,712     | ¥149,511,270  |                                     |
| 70  | ¥5,829,149 | ¥2,413,504    | ¥196,788 | -         | ¥3,612,433     | ¥152,626,844  |                                     |
| 71  | ¥5,916,586 | ¥2,437,639    | ¥199,285 | -         | ¥3,678,232     | ¥155,816,819  |                                     |
| 72  | ¥6,005,335 | ¥2,462,016    | ¥201,807 | -         | ¥3,745,126     | ¥159,083,449  |                                     |
| 73  | ¥6,095,415 | ¥2,486,636    | ¥204,355 | -         | ¥3,813,134     | ¥162,429,070  |                                     |
| 74  | ¥6,186,846 | ¥2,511,502    | ¥231,448 | -         | ¥3,906,792     | ¥165,831,586  |                                     |
| 75  | ¥6,279,649 | ¥2,536,617    | ¥234,046 | -         | ¥3,977,078     | ¥169,316,929  |                                     |
| 76  | ¥6,373,844 | ¥2,561,983    | ¥236,671 | -         | ¥4,048,532     | ¥172,887,658  |                                     |
| 77  | ¥6,469,451 | ¥2,587,603    | ¥239,322 | -         | ¥4,121,170     | ¥176,546,432  |                                     |
| 78  | ¥6,566,493 | ¥2,613,479    | ¥241,999 | -         | ¥4,195,013     | ¥180,296,008  |                                     |
| 79  | ¥6,664,990 | ¥2,639,614    | ¥244,703 | -         | ¥4,270,079     | ¥184,139,249  |                                     |

---


## Current Tax Summary

- **Income tax (所得税):** ¥115,400
- **Residence tax (住民税):** ¥235,600
- **Social insurance (社会保険):** ¥900,000
- ****Total tax + social insurance**:** **¥1,251,000**
- **Effective rate (income tax + residence tax + social insurance ÷ gross):** 17.9%

---


## Foreigners Mode Analysis


### ℹ️ Information

> No DTA country specified. If your home country has a tax treaty with Japan, set it in your profile to see treaty-specific provisions.
>
> Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告.
>
> Overseas brokerage/bank assets ¥12,750,000 ($85,000 USD): all income and gains from these accounts must be reported on your Japanese 確定申告. Use the foreign tax credit (外国税額控除) to offset any foreign withholding tax.
>
> Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits.
>

---


## Assumptions Used

| Assumption               | Value          |
| ------------------------ | -------------- |
| Accumulation return      | 5.0%           |
| Retirement return        | 4.5%           |
| Withdrawal rate          | 4.0%           |
| Japan inflation          | 2.0%           |
| Return volatility (MC)   | 15.0%          |
| Monte Carlo simulations  | 10,000         |
| Simulation horizon       | 40 years       |
| Sequence-of-returns risk | Enabled        |
| NHI household members    | 2              |
| NHI municipality key     | tokyo_shinjuku |
| USD/JPY rate             | ¥150           |

---


## Pension Details

- **Nenkin contribution months (current):** 413
- **Pension claim age:** 65
- **Net pension at claim age:** ¥2,296,367
- **Kosei nenkin (NenkinNet override):** ¥1,560,000
- **Avg standard monthly remuneration:** ¥530,000

---


## Methodology


### FIRE Number

The FIRE number is the minimum investment portfolio required to fund retirement indefinitely. It is calculated as:

`FIRE Number = (Annual Expenses − Net Pension Income + NHI Premium) ÷ Withdrawal Rate`

**Annual expenses** are derived from a region-specific template (e.g. Tokyo cost of living) plus any ongoing mortgage payments. **Net pension** is the after-tax combined kokumin nenkin and kosei nenkin income at the chosen claim age. **NHI premium** is solved iteratively because it depends on the withdrawal amount, which itself depends on the NHI premium — the solver converges in 5–10 iterations. The **withdrawal rate** (default 3.5%) determines what fraction of the portfolio is drawn down each year.


### Years to FIRE

Calculated analytically using the future-value annuity formula:

`FV = PV × (1+r)^n + PMT × ((1+r)^n − 1) / r`

where PV = current accessible portfolio, PMT = annual savings, r = pre-retirement return, and FV = FIRE number. Solving for n gives the years remaining. If PV already exceeds the FIRE number, years-to-FIRE is 0 (already FIRE'd).

**Important — this is a deterministic estimate, not a survival analysis.** It assumes the portfolio grows at exactly the configured return every year with no volatility. The Monte Carlo simulation (below) tests a different question: how does the portfolio fare under realistic return volatility over a multi-decade retirement? A scenario can show years_to_FIRE = 0 (accumulation complete by the deterministic model) while the Monte Carlo success rate is below 90% — both are correct because they answer different questions. The deterministic model asks 'can I get there?' The Monte Carlo asks 'will I stay there under bad-luck sequences?'


### Accessible Portfolio

The accessible portfolio includes NISA, taxable brokerage, cash savings, foreign assets, gold/crypto/RSU/other assets. **iDeCo is excluded if FIRE age < 60** (locked until age 60). If 'Mortgage paid off by retirement' is selected, the remaining mortgage balance — amortised to the retirement date at 1.5% annual interest — is deducted from the portfolio.


### Monte Carlo Simulation

Portfolio survival is tested by running N independent simulations (default 10,000). Each year's real return is drawn from a **log-normal distribution** calibrated to the configured mean return and volatility. Inflation erodes expenses annually at the Japan inflation rate. When sequence-of-returns risk is enabled, volatility is amplified by 1.5× during the first 5 years of retirement (the most vulnerable period).

A simulation **succeeds** if the portfolio never reaches ¥0 over the configured horizon (default 40 years). The **success rate** is the percentage of simulations that survive. Rather than relying on a universal safe-withdrawal-rate rule, JPFIRECalc computes a scenario-specific Monte Carlo safe rate from the configured return and volatility assumptions and shows it beside the user's selected withdrawal rate.


### Pension Estimation

**Kokumin nenkin (国民年金):** Base amount ≈ ¥795,000/year × (contribution months ÷ 480). **Kosei nenkin (厚生年金):** Estimated from the average standard monthly remuneration (標準報酬月額) × multiplier × contribution years, or from a NenkinNet override if provided. Early/late claim age adjustments: −0.4%/month before 65, +0.7%/month after 65.


### Tax Calculations

**Income tax (所得税):** Progressive brackets from 5% to 45%, plus 2.1% reconstruction surtax. Standard employment income deduction applied for company employees. **Residence tax (住民税):** Flat 10% of taxable income + per capita levy (¥5,000). **Effective tax rate** = (income tax + residence tax + social insurance) ÷ gross income. **Capital gains:** 20.315% flat rate (income tax 15.315% + residence tax 5%) on investment gains in taxable accounts. NISA gains are tax-free.


### NHI (National Health Insurance)

Calculated per municipality schedule with income-proportional (所得割), per-capita (均等割), and per-household (平等割) components across medical, support, and care (age 40–64) categories. Subject to annual caps. The iterative solver accounts for the circular dependency between withdrawal amount and NHI premium.

---


## Disclaimer

This report is generated by **JPFIRECalc** for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. FIRE projections are estimates based on assumed returns and may differ significantly from actual outcomes. Past market performance does not guarantee future results.

Japan-specific calculations (NHI, nenkin, residence tax, iDeCo) are approximations based on publicly available rules as of the report date. Tax laws change — verify current rules with a qualified Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) before making financial decisions.

**JPFIRECalc is open source.** Contributions and bug reports welcome at https://github.com/thinknzombie/JPFIRECalc