My Scenario

Tokyo Regular FIRE 2.6% WR
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FIRE Number
¥136,085,341
Target portfolio at My Scenario
Years to FIRE
Already FIRE'd!
FIRE age: 53
Progress
100%
¥365,017,567 of ¥136,085,341
Monte Carlo Success
89.3%
10000 simulations
NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥78,420/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥476,635/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI.
iDeCo is locked until age 60. Your ¥19,155,791 iDeCo balance is not accessible at your target FIRE age of 54. NISA + taxable must cover the 6-year gap.
Education commitments are modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Do not include these costs in monthly_expenses_jpy.
Education commitments overlap the retirement start year 2027. They are added to retirement withdrawals only for their active calendar years.
At your chosen 2.6% withdrawal rate, your current portfolio funds ¥9,490,456/yr (before NHI) — ¥280,518/mo more than your stated spending, before pension starts.
Your chosen withdrawal rate of 2.6% is above the ~1.5% rate that clears 90% Monte Carlo success under your return/volatility assumptions (excluding one-off events like a property sale).

FIRE Variants Comparison

💰 Your WR budget (before pension) ¥784,336/mo
💰 Your WR budget (after pension at 65) ¥1,062,008/mo

Portfolio ¥365,017,567 × 2.6% WR = ¥790,871/mo, minus NHI ¥6,535/mo, plus pension ¥310,856/mo (when it starts). This is what Monte Carlo below actually simulates withdrawing — not your stated spending, shown for comparison in Retirement Cash Flow below.

🌿 Lean FIRE ¥80,990,657 ✓
spend ¥367,759/mo · withdraw ¥96,622/mo from portfolio
🔥 Regular FIRE ¥136,085,341 ✓
spend ¥503,818/mo · withdraw ¥232,681/mo from portfolio
💎 Fat FIRE ¥227,909,410 ✓
spend ¥730,582/mo · withdraw ¥459,445/mo from portfolio
⛵ Coast FIRE ¥60,423,518 ✓
spend ¥503,818/mo (same as regular)
☕ Barista FIRE ¥136,085,341 ✓
spend ¥503,818/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥232,681/mo from portfolio

Retirement Cash Flow

WR Budget (funded lifestyle) ¥9,490,456
Pension Income (net) −¥3,730,275
NHI Premium (before pension) ¥78,420
NHI Premium (with pension) ¥476,635
Peak Education Commitment JPY 5,368,400
Pre-pension / Education-period Need JPY 11,492,636
Post-education Steady Need JPY 2,792,176
Net from Portfolio / yr ¥6,236,816

This is what Monte Carlo actually simulates withdrawing — the same for every FIRE variant, since it comes from your portfolio and chosen withdrawal rate, not stated expenses.

Year-1 Residence Tax Shock ¥2,128,790
Your Stated Spending ¥6,045,816
Deemed Withdrawal Rate (pre-pension) 1.7% vs chosen 2.6%

Education Commitments

Temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Last scheduled education year: 2031.

Calendar Year Total Beneficiaries
2026 JPY 5,000,000 Hana — Health Science: JPY 1,000,000 Hana — living costs: JPY 1,000,000 Liam — CIS: JPY 3,000,000
2027 JPY 4,180,000 Hana — living costs: JPY 1,030,000 Liam — CIS: JPY 3,150,000
2028 JPY 5,368,400 Hana — living costs: JPY 1,060,900 Liam — CIS: JPY 3,307,500 Liam — living costs: JPY 1,000,000
2029 JPY 2,122,727 Hana — living costs: JPY 1,092,727 Liam — living costs: JPY 1,030,000
2030 JPY 1,060,900 Liam — living costs: JPY 1,060,900
2031 JPY 1,092,727 Liam — living costs: JPY 1,092,727

Projected Balances at Retirement

新NISA
¥23,334,855
Tax-free, fully liquid
iDeCo
¥19,155,791
Locked until 60 — bridge needed
Bridge: ¥28,817,621
Taxable / Cash
¥50,511,508
Gains taxed at 20.315%

Portfolio Survival — Monte Carlo 89.3% success

Simulates drawing ¥9,490,456/yr (2.6% of ¥365,017,567) — not your stated expenses.

MC-implied safe withdrawal rate ~1.5% (success target: 90%; chosen: 2.6%)

Sensitivity Analysis Impact on FIRE Surplus %

Net Worth Projection

Year-by-Year Cash Flow ⬇ CSV

Current Tax Summary

Income Tax (所得税) ¥5,353,200
Residence Tax (住民税) ¥2,014,790
Social Insurance (社会保険) ¥5,800,000
Effective Rate (tax + SI ÷ gross) 45.0%

Foreigners Mode Australia Totalization ✓ Exit Tax Risk

Action Required
Exit Tax (国外転出時課税): your projected FIRE number or current assets may exceed the ¥100,000,000 threshold. If you plan to leave Japan after FIRE, unrealised gains on financial assets (stocks, investment trusts, bonds) are treated as realised on departure and taxed at 15.315% (national) + 5% (residence). NISA holdings lose tax-free status on exit. Seek professional tax advice before emigrating.
NISA Exit Tax Interaction: your NISA balance ¥20,686,781 will lose its tax-free status if you leave Japan permanently. Unrealised NISA gains become subject to exit tax at departure.
Information
Pension treaty (Australia): Australian Age Pension: taxable in Japan. Superannuation distributions: taxable in Japan (not covered by DTA as government pension).
Superannuation is not a government pension — distributions are taxed in Japan as miscellaneous income.
Australian dividends: 10% WHT under treaty (vs 30% default).
Super contributions made while Japan-resident are not tax-deductible in Japan.
Dividend withholding tax under Japan–Australia DTA: 10% (vs 20.315% Japan standard rate on foreign dividends).
Totalization agreement with Australia: your contribution periods in both countries can be combined to meet Japan's 10-year minimum eligibility for nenkin. This avoids double pension contributions.
Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告.
Overseas brokerage/bank assets ¥278,600,612 ($1,730,439 USD): all income and gains from these accounts must be reported on your Japanese 確定申告. Use the foreign tax credit (外国税額控除) to offset any foreign withholding tax.
Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits.

These notes are informational only and not legal or tax advice. Consult a Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) for your specific situation.