# FIRE Report — My Scenario > **Generated:** 2026-08-02 > **Scenario:** My Scenario > **Region:** Tokyo > **FIRE variant:** Regular > **Withdrawal rate:** 2.6% --- ## Executive Summary > ℹ️ **Your current portfolio exceeds your FIRE number, so years-to-FIRE is 0.** However, your Monte Carlo survival rate of 89.3% tells a different story — and both can be true at the same time. > The **FIRE number** answers: *"Have I accumulated enough to never run out, if returns are exactly average every year?"* > The **Monte Carlo** answers: *"What happens if I get unlucky with returns early in retirement — the period that matters most?"* > A sub-90% survival rate means there is meaningful risk that a bad-luck sequence early in retirement permanently impairs your portfolio. See the Monte Carlo section below for details and concrete ways to improve the rate. | Metric | Value | Notes | | --------------------- | --------------------- | --------------------------- | | FIRE Number | ¥136,085,341 | Portfolio needed at 2.6% WR | | Current Portfolio | ¥365,017,567 | 100.0% of FIRE number | | Years to FIRE | 0.0 years | Projected FIRE age: 53 | | Coast FIRE Number | ¥60,423,518 | Reached ✅ | | MC Portfolio Survival | 89.3% ⚠️ (borderline) | 10,000 simulations | ## Monthly Drawdown Capacity (WR Budget) Your current portfolio of **¥365,017,567** at **2.6% WR** supports the following monthly draw — this is what Monte Carlo actually simulates, not your stated spending: | Phase | From Portfolio | Pension Tops Up | Total Available | Your Stated Spend | Headroom | | ------------------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------- | ----------------- | ------------------- | | Pre-pension (53–64) | ¥784,336/mo | — | ¥784,336/mo | ¥503,818/mo | ⚠️ +¥280,518/mo gap | | Post-pension (65+) | ¥790,871/mo | +¥310,856/mo | ¥1,062,008/mo | ¥503,818/mo | ⚠️ +¥558,190/mo gap | **Deemed withdrawal rate** (the rate your stated spending would actually require against your current portfolio): **1.7%** pre-pension, **0.8%** once pension starts — compare to your chosen **2.6%**. > **Interpretation:** This is the maximum monthly amount your chosen withdrawal rate lets you draw from your portfolio — before accounting for rental income, Social Security, or other non-portfolio sources. Your stated expenses of **¥503,818/mo** are within this capacity, and the margin widens once pension income starts at age 65. --- ### ⚠️ Warnings > ⚠️ NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥78,420/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥476,635/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI. > > ⚠️ iDeCo is locked until age 60. Your ¥19,155,791 iDeCo balance is not accessible at your target FIRE age of 54. NISA + taxable must cover the 6-year gap. > > ⚠️ Education commitments are modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. Do not include these costs in monthly_expenses_jpy. > > ⚠️ Education commitments overlap the retirement start year 2027. They are added to retirement withdrawals only for their active calendar years. > > ⚠️ At your chosen 2.6% withdrawal rate, your current portfolio funds ¥9,490,456/yr (before NHI) — ¥280,518/mo more than your stated spending, before pension starts. > > ⚠️ Your chosen withdrawal rate of 2.6% is above the ~1.5% rate that clears 90% Monte Carlo success under your return/volatility assumptions (excluding one-off events like a property sale). > --- ## Current Situation ### Personal - **Current age:** 53 - **Target retirement age:** 54 - **Years to retirement:** 1 - **Employment type:** Company Employee ### Income - **Annual gross income:** ¥29,263,900 - **Social insurance paid:** ¥5,800,000 - **Spouse income:** ¥700,000 - **Dependents:** 3 ### Current Portfolio | Account | Balance | Notes | | -------------------- | ----------------------------- | ----------------------- | | 新NISA | ¥20,686,781 | Tax-free, fully liquid | | iDeCo | ¥17,644,665 | Locked until age 60 | | Taxable brokerage | ¥47,207,017 | Gains taxed at 20.315% | | Cash savings | ¥28,113,262 | | | Foreign assets | $1,730,439 USD = ¥279,119,744 | @ ¥161/USD | | **Total accessible** | **¥365,017,567** | iDeCo excluded (locked) | ### Monthly Cash Flow - **Monthly expenses:** ¥453,528 - **Recurring annual expenses excluding education:** ¥6,045,816 - **Monthly NISA contribution (tsumitate):** ¥100,000 - **iDeCo monthly contribution:** ¥23,000 - **Total monthly savings:** ¥123,000 ### Education Commitments Education is modelled as temporary committed spending, separate from recurring lifestyle expenses. | Beneficiary | Annual Cost | Years | Inflation | Category | | --------------------- | ----------- | --------- | --------- | --------- | | Hana — Health Science | ¥1,000,000 | 2026-2026 | 3.0% | education | | Hana — living costs | ¥1,000,000 | 2026-2029 | 3.0% | education | | Liam — CIS | ¥3,000,000 | 2026-2028 | 5.0% | education | | Liam — living costs | ¥1,000,000 | 2028-2031 | 3.0% | education | | Calendar Year | Total | Beneficiaries | | ------------- | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 2026 | ¥5,000,000 | Hana — Health Science: ¥1,000,000, Hana — living costs: ¥1,000,000, Liam — CIS: ¥3,000,000 | | 2027 | ¥4,180,000 | Hana — living costs: ¥1,030,000, Liam — CIS: ¥3,150,000 | | 2028 | ¥5,368,400 | Hana — living costs: ¥1,060,900, Liam — CIS: ¥3,307,500, Liam — living costs: ¥1,000,000 | | 2029 | ¥2,122,727 | Hana — living costs: ¥1,092,727, Liam — living costs: ¥1,030,000 | | 2030 | ¥1,060,900 | Liam — living costs: ¥1,060,900 | | 2031 | ¥1,092,727 | Liam — living costs: ¥1,092,727 | - **Total scheduled education:** ¥18,824,754 - **Education ends after:** 2031 ### Real Estate - **Japan property value:** ¥120,000,000 - **Mortgage balance:** ¥0 - **Monthly mortgage payment:** ¥0 - **Monthly rental income:** ¥120,000 - **Foreign property value:** ¥100,000,000 - **Foreign mortgage balance:** ¥25,811,695 - **Foreign monthly rental income:** ¥315,789 --- ## FIRE Projections ### FIRE Number Breakdown This sizes your **savings target** from your stated spending — it does not drive Monte Carlo, which simulates your actual portfolio at your chosen withdrawal rate instead (see Monthly Drawdown Capacity above and the Monte Carlo section below). | Component | Annual (JPY) | Notes | | ----------------------------- | ---------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | | Retirement expenses (Regular) | ¥6,045,816 | ¥503,818/month — your stated spending goal | | Less: pension income | −¥3,730,275 | Claim age 65 | | Plus: NHI premium | ¥476,635 | Income-based; pre-pension years ≈ ¥78,420 (軽減 minimum) | | = Net portfolio need | ¥2,792,176 | ÷ 2.6% WR | | **FIRE number** | **¥136,085,341** | | > ⚠️ **Year-1 residence tax shock:** ¥2,128,790 — this extra cost is due in your first retirement year on top of regular expenses. ### Projected Account Balances at Retirement | Account | Balance | Notes | | -------------- | ----------- | -------------------------------------------- | | 新NISA | ¥23,334,855 | Tax-free, fully accessible | | iDeCo | ¥19,155,791 | Locked until 60 (bridge needed: ¥28,817,621) | | Taxable / Cash | ¥50,511,508 | Gains taxed at 20.315% | ### FIRE Variants | Variant | Target | Status | | ------------ | ------------ | -------------------------------------------------- | | Full FIRE | ¥136,085,341 | Reached ✅ | | Coast FIRE | ¥60,423,518 | Reached ✅ | | Barista FIRE | ¥136,085,341 | Smaller target if supplemented by part-time income | --- ## Monte Carlo Simulation - **Simulations run:** 10,000 - **Portfolio survival rate:** 89.3% - **MC-implied safe withdrawal rate (90% target):** ~1.5% - **Mean return assumption:** 4.0% - **Volatility assumption:** 17.5% - **Simulation horizon:** 40 years **What the success rate means:** In 10,000 simulated market paths, 89.3% kept the portfolio above ¥0 for the full 40-year retirement horizon. A simulation *fails* when a bad sequence of returns early in retirement (the 'sequence-of-returns risk' window — amplified 1.5× in the first 5 years) permanently shrinks the portfolio so that ongoing withdrawals eventually exhaust it. Each individual path represents one possible future. The spread between p10 and p90 shows the range from worst-case to optimistic outcomes across all simulations. **Why this differs from your years-to-FIRE:** The FIRE number and years-to-FIRE use a *single fixed return* every year — exactly the expected average, no volatility, no bad years. That is the right model for a savings roadmap: it tells you whether your current trajectory gets you there. The Monte Carlo tests a different question: what if returns are *not* average? The worst time to get unlucky is early in retirement, because losses then have 40 years to compound negatively against ongoing withdrawals. A portfolio can be 'at the FIRE number' deterministically but still fail in 30% of simulated paths because a 15% volatility environment produces meaningful probability of exactly that bad-early scenario. **Concrete levers to improve your survival rate:** 1. **Lower withdrawal rate:** At 2.6% WR your survival rate is 89.3%. Your Monte Carlo-implied safe rate is ~1.5% for a 90% target — dropping your chosen rate to that level, or growing the portfolio so the same ¥ draw represents a lower percentage, closes the gap directly (this is now an exact relationship, not an estimate: WR sets the amount actually withdrawn). 2. **Delay pension claiming:** Every year you defer nenkin past 65 (up to 75) reduces the annual draw from the portfolio and meaningfully improves survival — especially powerful if deferring to 70+, which adds ~42% to the annual benefit. 3. **Ruin timing:** In failed paths, the portfolio typically hits ¥0 around retirement year 33 (age 87). This is concentrated in the first 10 years — exactly the SOR window. 4. **Sequence-of-returns risk:** Currently enabled — volatility is amplified 1.5× for the first 5 years of retirement, which reduces the success rate compared to a constant-volatility model. This is conservative and consistent with Japan-focused research (Kitces/ERN). ### Portfolio Percentiles at Key Retirement Years **p10 (stress):** 10% of simulations are at or below this value. **Median (p50):** Half of simulations exceed this. **p90 (optimistic):** Only 10% exceed this — a good year. | Year | Age | p10 (stress) | p25 | Median (p50) | p75 | p90 (optimistic) | | ---- | --- | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ | -------------- | ---------------- | | 0 | 54 | ¥365,017,567 | ¥365,017,567 | ¥365,017,567 | ¥365,017,567 | ¥365,017,567 | | 5 | 59 | ¥152,279,926 | ¥225,474,949 | ¥336,544,860 | ¥497,910,285 | ¥712,333,407 | | 10 | 64 | ¥125,824,298 | ¥210,773,304 | ¥357,014,921 | ¥580,253,391 | ¥905,638,453 | | 15 | 69 | ¥110,474,755 | ¥202,958,535 | ¥379,018,999 | ¥675,509,075 | ¥1,124,953,392 | | 20 | 74 | ¥96,730,009 | ¥200,803,603 | ¥400,022,668 | ¥785,972,528 | ¥1,404,822,732 | | 25 | 79 | ¥80,570,704 | ¥193,897,401 | ¥427,959,730 | ¥910,784,797 | ¥1,693,988,092 | | 30 | 84 | ¥56,046,083 | ¥179,249,857 | ¥464,859,034 | ¥1,024,515,561 | ¥2,035,074,127 | --- ## Sensitivity Analysis Each variable was shifted ±20% from the base value. Because you have already reached FIRE, the table shows the impact on your **FIRE surplus %** (how far above your FIRE number your portfolio sits). Variables are ranked by total impact — focus on the top rows. | Variable | Base surplus | Pessimistic | Optimistic | | | --------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ----------- | ---------- | ------------- | | Monthly expenses (¥503,818) | 196.2% | +73.6% | +146.3% | ↑ more impact | | Mortgage rate — Kakinokizaka land (0.47%) | 196.2% | +42.6% | +59.9% | ↑ more impact | | USD/JPY (161) | 196.2% | +45.2% | +45.2% | ↑ more impact | | Withdrawal rate (2.6%) | 196.2% | +36.7% | +30.8% | ↑ more impact | | Mortgage rate — Crozier Avenue (5.50%) | 196.2% | +23.3% | +27.6% | ↑ more impact | | Mortgage rate — Kakinokizaka building (0.67%) | 196.2% | +18.2% | +20.8% | ↑ more impact | | Investment return (7.0%) | 196.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | | | Monthly savings (¥123,000) | 196.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | | --- ## Net Worth Trajectory (Key Milestones) Fixed-return deterministic projection. Hover the chart in the app for year-by-year details. | Age | Phase | Portfolio Value | Notes | | --- | ------------ | --------------- | ---------------- | | 53 | Accumulation | ¥391,768,796 | | | 54 | Retirement | ¥396,095,817 | ← FIRE target | | 58 | Retirement | ¥429,850,865 | | | 63 | Retirement | ¥521,621,160 | | | 65 | Retirement | ¥553,732,967 | ← Pension starts | | 68 | Retirement | ¥610,991,727 | | | 73 | Retirement | ¥719,436,254 | | | 78 | Retirement | ¥846,882,226 | | | 83 | Retirement | ¥997,072,996 | | | 88 | Retirement | ¥1,174,532,735 | | | 93 | Retirement | ¥1,384,733,219 | | | 98 | Retirement | ¥1,634,296,498 | | | 102 | Retirement | ¥1,867,622,688 | | ### Retirement Cash Flow — First 15 Years Expenses inflate at the retirement expense growth rate; NHI is recomputed each year from actual taxable income (pension after 公的年金等控除 — portfolio withdrawals are not income). Download the full table as CSV from the scenario page. | Age | Expenses | Pension (net) | NHI | Education | From Portfolio | Portfolio EOY | Notes | | --- | ----------- | ------------- | -------- | ---------- | -------------- | ------------- | ------------------------------------- | | 54 | ¥10,185,988 | — | ¥78,420 | ¥4,180,000 | ¥11,343,730 | ¥396,095,817 | incl. year-1 residence tax ¥2,128,790 | | 55 | ¥10,338,777 | — | ¥78,420 | ¥5,368,400 | ¥10,556,129 | ¥401,383,520 | | | 56 | ¥10,493,859 | — | ¥78,420 | ¥2,122,727 | ¥7,465,538 | ¥409,973,322 | | | 57 | ¥10,651,267 | — | ¥78,420 | ¥1,060,900 | ¥6,561,119 | ¥419,811,135 | | | 58 | ¥10,811,036 | — | ¥78,420 | ¥1,092,727 | ¥6,752,715 | ¥429,850,865 | | | 59 | ¥10,973,201 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥5,822,153 | ¥441,222,746 | | | 60 | ¥11,137,799 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥5,986,751 | ¥481,257,259 | | | 61 | ¥11,304,866 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥6,153,818 | ¥494,353,731 | | | 62 | ¥11,474,439 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥6,323,391 | ¥507,804,489 | | | 63 | ¥11,646,556 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥6,495,508 | ¥521,621,160 | | | 64 | ¥11,821,254 | — | ¥78,420 | - | ¥6,670,206 | ¥535,815,800 | | | 65 | ¥11,998,573 | ¥3,730,275 | ¥476,635 | - | ¥3,515,465 | ¥553,732,967 | | | 66 | ¥12,178,552 | ¥3,767,577 | ¥479,715 | - | ¥3,661,222 | ¥572,221,063 | | | 67 | ¥12,361,230 | ¥3,805,253 | ¥483,162 | - | ¥3,809,671 | ¥591,300,234 | | | 68 | ¥12,546,649 | ¥3,843,306 | ¥486,641 | - | ¥3,960,516 | ¥610,991,727 | | --- ## Current Tax Summary - **Income tax (所得税):** ¥5,353,200 - **Residence tax (住民税):** ¥2,014,790 - **Social insurance (社会保険):** ¥5,800,000 - ****Total tax + social insurance**:** **¥13,167,990** - **Effective rate (income tax + residence tax + social insurance ÷ gross):** 45.0% --- ## Foreigners Mode Analysis - **DTA country:** Australia - **Totalization eligible:** Yes ✅ - **Exit tax risk:** Yes — assets may exceed ¥100M threshold ⚠️ ### ⚠️ Action Required > ⚠️ Exit Tax (国外転出時課税): your projected FIRE number or current assets may exceed the ¥100,000,000 threshold. If you plan to leave Japan after FIRE, unrealised gains on financial assets (stocks, investment trusts, bonds) are treated as realised on departure and taxed at 15.315% (national) + 5% (residence). NISA holdings lose tax-free status on exit. Seek professional tax advice before emigrating. > > ⚠️ NISA Exit Tax Interaction: your NISA balance ¥20,686,781 will lose its tax-free status if you leave Japan permanently. Unrealised NISA gains become subject to exit tax at departure. > ### ℹ️ Information > Pension treaty (Australia): Australian Age Pension: taxable in Japan. Superannuation distributions: taxable in Japan (not covered by DTA as government pension). > > Superannuation is not a government pension — distributions are taxed in Japan as miscellaneous income. > > Australian dividends: 10% WHT under treaty (vs 30% default). > > Super contributions made while Japan-resident are not tax-deductible in Japan. > > Dividend withholding tax under Japan–Australia DTA: 10% (vs 20.315% Japan standard rate on foreign dividends). > > Totalization agreement with Australia: your contribution periods in both countries can be combined to meet Japan's 10-year minimum eligibility for nenkin. This avoids double pension contributions. > > Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告. > > Overseas brokerage/bank assets ¥278,600,612 ($1,730,439 USD): all income and gains from these accounts must be reported on your Japanese 確定申告. Use the foreign tax credit (外国税額控除) to offset any foreign withholding tax. > > Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits. > --- ## Assumptions Used | Assumption | Value | | ------------------------ | -------------- | | Accumulation return | 7.0% | | Retirement return | 4.0% | | Withdrawal rate | 2.6% | | Japan inflation | 2.0% | | Return volatility (MC) | 17.5% | | Monte Carlo simulations | 10,000 | | Simulation horizon | 40 years | | Sequence-of-returns risk | Enabled | | NHI household members | 4 | | NHI municipality key | tokyo_setagaya | | USD/JPY rate | ¥161 | --- ## Pension Details - **Nenkin contribution months (current):** 480 - **Pension claim age:** 65 - **Net pension at claim age:** ¥3,730,275 - **Kosei nenkin (NenkinNet override):** ¥3,219,163 - **Avg standard monthly remuneration:** ¥980,000 --- ## Methodology ### FIRE Number The FIRE number is the minimum investment portfolio required to fund retirement indefinitely. It is calculated as: `FIRE Number = (Annual Expenses − Net Pension Income + NHI Premium) ÷ Withdrawal Rate` **Annual expenses** are derived from a region-specific template (e.g. Tokyo cost of living) plus any ongoing mortgage payments. **Net pension** is the after-tax combined kokumin nenkin and kosei nenkin income at the chosen claim age. **NHI premium** is solved iteratively because it depends on the withdrawal amount, which itself depends on the NHI premium — the solver converges in 5–10 iterations. The **withdrawal rate** (default 3.5%) determines what fraction of the portfolio is drawn down each year. ### Years to FIRE Calculated analytically using the future-value annuity formula: `FV = PV × (1+r)^n + PMT × ((1+r)^n − 1) / r` where PV = current accessible portfolio, PMT = annual savings, r = pre-retirement return, and FV = FIRE number. Solving for n gives the years remaining. If PV already exceeds the FIRE number, years-to-FIRE is 0 (already FIRE'd). **Important — this is a deterministic estimate, not a survival analysis.** It assumes the portfolio grows at exactly the configured return every year with no volatility. The Monte Carlo simulation (below) tests a different question: how does the portfolio fare under realistic return volatility over a multi-decade retirement? A scenario can show years_to_FIRE = 0 (accumulation complete by the deterministic model) while the Monte Carlo success rate is below 90% — both are correct because they answer different questions. The deterministic model asks 'can I get there?' The Monte Carlo asks 'will I stay there under bad-luck sequences?' ### Accessible Portfolio The accessible portfolio includes NISA, taxable brokerage, cash savings, foreign assets, gold/crypto/RSU/other assets. **iDeCo is excluded if FIRE age < 60** (locked until age 60). If 'Mortgage paid off by retirement' is selected, the remaining mortgage balance — amortised to the retirement date at 1.5% annual interest — is deducted from the portfolio. ### Monte Carlo Simulation Portfolio survival is tested by running N independent simulations (default 10,000). Each year's real return is drawn from a **log-normal distribution** calibrated to the configured mean return and volatility. Inflation erodes expenses annually at the Japan inflation rate. When sequence-of-returns risk is enabled, volatility is amplified by 1.5× during the first 5 years of retirement (the most vulnerable period). A simulation **succeeds** if the portfolio never reaches ¥0 over the configured horizon (default 40 years). The **success rate** is the percentage of simulations that survive. Rather than relying on a universal safe-withdrawal-rate rule, JPFIRECalc computes a scenario-specific Monte Carlo safe rate from the configured return and volatility assumptions and shows it beside the user's selected withdrawal rate. ### Pension Estimation **Kokumin nenkin (国民年金):** Base amount ≈ ¥795,000/year × (contribution months ÷ 480). **Kosei nenkin (厚生年金):** Estimated from the average standard monthly remuneration (標準報酬月額) × multiplier × contribution years, or from a NenkinNet override if provided. Early/late claim age adjustments: −0.4%/month before 65, +0.7%/month after 65. ### Tax Calculations **Income tax (所得税):** Progressive brackets from 5% to 45%, plus 2.1% reconstruction surtax. Standard employment income deduction applied for company employees. **Residence tax (住民税):** Flat 10% of taxable income + per capita levy (¥5,000). **Effective tax rate** = (income tax + residence tax + social insurance) ÷ gross income. **Capital gains:** 20.315% flat rate (income tax 15.315% + residence tax 5%) on investment gains in taxable accounts. NISA gains are tax-free. ### NHI (National Health Insurance) Calculated per municipality schedule with income-proportional (所得割), per-capita (均等割), and per-household (平等割) components across medical, support, and care (age 40–64) categories. Subject to annual caps. The iterative solver accounts for the circular dependency between withdrawal amount and NHI premium. --- ## Disclaimer This report is generated by **JPFIRECalc** for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. FIRE projections are estimates based on assumed returns and may differ significantly from actual outcomes. Past market performance does not guarantee future results. Japan-specific calculations (NHI, nenkin, residence tax, iDeCo) are approximations based on publicly available rules as of the report date. Tax laws change — verify current rules with a qualified Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) before making financial decisions. **JPFIRECalc is open source.** Contributions and bug reports welcome at https://github.com/thinknzombie/JPFIRECalc