My Scenario
FIRE Number
¥72,413,095
Target portfolio at My Scenario
Years to FIRE
28.5
FIRE age: 64
Progress
0%
¥0 of ¥72,413,095
Monte Carlo Success
0.0%
10000 simulations
NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥23,250/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥18,390/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI.
iDeCo is locked until age 60. Your ¥5,955,683 iDeCo balance is not accessible at your target FIRE age of 50. NISA + taxable must cover the 10-year gap.
At your chosen 3.5% withdrawal rate, your current portfolio funds ¥0/yr (before NHI) — ¥0/mo more than your stated spending, before pension starts.
FIRE Variants Comparison
💰 Your WR budget (before pension)
¥-1,937/mo
💰 Your WR budget (after pension at 65)
¥24,528/mo
Portfolio ¥0 × 3.5% WR = ¥0/mo, minus NHI ¥1,937/mo, plus pension ¥26,061/mo (when it starts). This is what Monte Carlo below actually simulates withdrawing — not your stated spending, shown for comparison in Retirement Cash Flow below.
🌿 Lean FIRE
¥49,460,406
spend ¥175,000/mo · withdraw ¥150,471/mo from portfolio
spend ¥175,000/mo · withdraw ¥150,471/mo from portfolio
🔥 Regular FIRE
¥72,413,095
spend ¥250,000/mo · withdraw ¥225,471/mo from portfolio
spend ¥250,000/mo · withdraw ¥225,471/mo from portfolio
💎 Fat FIRE
¥110,667,575
spend ¥375,000/mo · withdraw ¥350,471/mo from portfolio
spend ¥375,000/mo · withdraw ¥350,471/mo from portfolio
⛵ Coast FIRE
¥16,754,757
spend ¥250,000/mo (same as regular)
spend ¥250,000/mo (same as regular)
☕ Barista FIRE
¥72,413,095
spend ¥250,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥225,471/mo from portfolio
spend ¥250,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥225,471/mo from portfolio
Retirement Cash Flow
WR Budget (funded lifestyle)
¥0
Pension Income (net)
−¥312,736
NHI Premium (before pension)
¥23,250
NHI Premium (with pension)
¥18,390
Net from Portfolio / yr
¥18,390
This is what Monte Carlo actually simulates withdrawing — the same for every FIRE variant, since it comes from your portfolio and chosen withdrawal rate, not stated expenses.
Year-1 Residence Tax Shock
¥544,400
Your Stated Spending
¥3,000,000
Deemed Withdrawal Rate (pre-pension)
0.0%
vs chosen 3.5%
Projected Balances at Retirement
新NISA
¥25,894,269
Tax-free, fully liquid
iDeCo
¥5,955,683
Locked until 60 — bridge needed
Bridge: ¥23,165,204
Taxable / Cash
¥0
Gains taxed at 20.315%
Portfolio Survival — Monte Carlo 0.0% success
Runs 10,000 retirement scenarios with randomised annual returns — each one models a different possible future. The lines and shaded bands below show how your portfolio value spreads across all those outcomes.
Median (p50) — your expected middle outcome; half of all simulations finish above this line
p25–p75 band — the middle 50% of outcomes; a realistic planning range
p10–p90 band — 80% of all scenarios fall inside this range
p90 (green dotted) — optimistic ceiling: only 10% of runs end higher than this
p10 (red dotted) — stress-test floor: only 10% of runs end lower; plan so this stays above ¥0
Japan note:
The success rate above measures whether your chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable — not whether your stated living expenses are covered. Check the deemed withdrawal rate in Retirement Cash Flow to see if your chosen rate actually funds your stated spending.
Simulates drawing ¥0/yr (3.5% of ¥0) — not your stated expenses.
Sensitivity Analysis Impact on Years to FIRE
Each variable in your plan is shifted ±20% from your input value. The bar shows how many years earlier or later you would reach FIRE as a result. Bars at the top have the biggest impact — those are the levers most worth pulling.
Red bars (right →) — pessimistic: this variable getting 20% worse adds years to FIRE
Green bars (← left) — optimistic: this variable improving by 20% removes years from FIRE
Centre line — your current base case; bars extend left and right from here
Japan note:
In Japan, monthly expenses and withdrawal rate typically show the longest bars — they matter more than investment return assumptions. Reducing living costs or lowering your withdrawal rate often shortens your FIRE timeline more than chasing higher returns in Japan's lower-yield environment.
Net Worth Projection
A deterministic year-by-year projection using your fixed return assumptions — not randomised like Monte Carlo. Shows the single expected path: how your portfolio grows while working, and how it draws down in retirement. Hover any point to see the exact portfolio value at that age.
Blue solid line — accumulation phase: your portfolio growing through monthly contributions and investment returns
Amber dashed line — drawdown phase: portfolio being spent in retirement; slope flattens once pension income begins
Japan note:
The drawdown slope accounts for nenkin (年金) income starting at your claim age — offsetting withdrawals and slowing the decline. The first retirement year may show a sharper drop due to the year-1 residence tax shock (住民税), which is billed on the prior year's working income.
Year-by-Year Cash Flow ⬇ CSV
| Age | Phase | WR Budget | Pension | NHI | Education | From Portfolio | Savings | Portfolio | iDeCo (locked) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥1,200,000 | ¥276,000 |
| 36 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥2,460,000 | ¥565,800 |
| 37 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥3,783,000 | ¥870,090 |
| 38 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥5,172,150 | ¥1,189,594 |
| 39 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥6,630,757 | ¥1,525,073 |
| 40 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥8,162,294 | ¥1,877,326 |
| 41 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥9,770,408 | ¥2,247,192 |
| 42 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥11,458,928 | ¥2,635,551 |
| 43 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥13,231,874 | ¥3,043,328 |
| 44 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥15,093,467 | ¥3,471,494 |
| 45 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥17,048,140 | ¥3,921,068 |
| 46 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥19,100,547 | ¥4,393,121 |
| 47 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥21,255,574 | ¥4,888,777 |
| 48 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥23,518,352 | ¥5,409,215 |
| 49 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥25,894,269 | ¥5,955,675 |
| 50 | 🔥 | ¥906,299 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,473,949 +住民税 | — | ¥25,585,562 | ¥6,253,458 |
| 51 | 🔥 | ¥919,893 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥943,143 | — | ¥25,793,769 | ¥6,566,130 |
| 52 | 🔥 | ¥933,691 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥956,941 | — | ¥25,997,547 | ¥6,894,436 |
| 53 | 🔥 | ¥947,697 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥970,947 | — | ¥26,196,489 | ¥7,239,157 |
| 54 | 🔥 | ¥961,912 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥985,162 | — | ¥26,390,169 | ¥7,601,114 |
| 55 | 🔥 | ¥976,341 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥999,591 | — | ¥26,578,135 | ¥7,981,169 |
| 56 | 🔥 | ¥990,986 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,014,236 | — | ¥26,759,915 | ¥8,380,227 |
| 57 | 🔥 | ¥1,005,851 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,029,101 | — | ¥26,935,010 | ¥8,799,238 |
| 58 | 🔥 | ¥1,020,939 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,044,189 | — | ¥27,102,896 | ¥9,239,199 |
| 59 | 🔥 | ¥1,036,253 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,059,503 | — | ¥27,263,023 | ¥9,701,158 |
| 60 | 🔥 | ¥1,051,796 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,075,046 | — | ¥37,940,173 | — |
| 61 | 🔥 | ¥1,067,573 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,090,823 | — | ¥38,556,657 | — |
| 62 | 🔥 | ¥1,083,587 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,106,837 | — | ¥39,184,869 | — |
| 63 | 🔥 | ¥1,099,841 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,123,091 | — | ¥39,825,097 | — |
| 64 | 🔥 | ¥1,116,338 | — | ¥23,250 | - | ¥1,139,588 | — | ¥40,477,638 | — |
| 65 | 🔥 | ¥1,133,084 | ¥312,736 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥838,738 | — | ¥41,460,393 | — |
| 66 | 🔥 | ¥1,150,080 | ¥315,863 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥852,607 | — | ¥42,473,503 | — |
| 67 | 🔥 | ¥1,167,331 | ¥319,021 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥866,700 | — | ¥43,518,110 | — |
| 68 | 🔥 | ¥1,184,841 | ¥322,212 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥881,019 | — | ¥44,595,405 | — |
| 69 | 🔥 | ¥1,202,614 | ¥325,434 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥895,570 | — | ¥45,706,628 | — |
| 70 | 🔥 | ¥1,220,653 | ¥328,688 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥910,355 | — | ¥46,853,071 | — |
| 71 | 🔥 | ¥1,238,963 | ¥331,975 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥925,378 | — | ¥48,036,081 | — |
| 72 | 🔥 | ¥1,257,547 | ¥335,295 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥940,642 | — | ¥49,257,062 | — |
| 73 | 🔥 | ¥1,276,410 | ¥338,648 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥956,152 | — | ¥50,517,477 | — |
| 74 | 🔥 | ¥1,295,556 | ¥342,034 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥971,912 | — | ¥51,818,851 | — |
| 75 | 🔥 | ¥1,314,990 | ¥345,455 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥987,925 | — | ¥53,162,774 | — |
| 76 | 🔥 | ¥1,334,715 | ¥348,909 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,004,196 | — | ¥54,550,902 | — |
| 77 | 🔥 | ¥1,354,735 | ¥352,398 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,020,727 | — | ¥55,984,965 | — |
| 78 | 🔥 | ¥1,375,056 | ¥355,922 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,037,524 | — | ¥57,466,764 | — |
| 79 | 🔥 | ¥1,395,682 | ¥359,481 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,054,591 | — | ¥58,998,177 | — |
| 80 | 🔥 | ¥1,416,618 | ¥363,076 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,071,932 | — | ¥60,581,162 | — |
| 81 | 🔥 | ¥1,437,867 | ¥366,707 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,089,550 | — | ¥62,217,764 | — |
| 82 | 🔥 | ¥1,459,435 | ¥370,374 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,107,451 | — | ¥63,910,112 | — |
| 83 | 🔥 | ¥1,481,326 | ¥374,078 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,125,638 | — | ¥65,660,429 | — |
| 84 | 🔥 | ¥1,503,546 | ¥377,819 | ¥18,390 | - | ¥1,144,117 | — | ¥67,471,031 | — |
Current Tax Summary
Income Tax (所得税)
¥624,100
Residence Tax (住民税)
¥544,400
Effective Rate (tax + SI ÷ gross)
14.6%
Foreigners Mode
Information
No DTA country specified. If your home country has a tax treaty with Japan, set it in your profile to see treaty-specific provisions.
Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告.
Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits.
These notes are informational only and not legal or tax advice. Consult a Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) for your specific situation.