My Scenario
FIRE Number
¥24,296,250
Target portfolio at My Scenario
Years to FIRE
Already FIRE'd!
FIRE age: 49
Progress
100%
¥41,734,250 of ¥24,296,250
Monte Carlo Success
100.0%
10000 simulations
NHI premiums are assessed on taxable income, not withdrawals — this model assumes NISA and 特定口座(源泉徴収あり) sales stay off your tax return. Pre-pension NHI ≈ ¥18,390/yr (軽減 minimum); with pension ≈ ¥164,107/yr. Declaring brokerage gains (e.g. for loss carryforward) would raise NHI.
Your stated spending (¥3,240,000/yr) is more than your chosen 4.0% withdrawal rate funds against your current portfolio (¥1,669,370/yr, before NHI). Sustaining your stated spending would actually mean drawing at ~7.8% pre-pension (~¥1,589,020/yr short) — you'd need a bigger portfolio, a higher withdrawal rate, or lower spending.
Your Monte Carlo-implied safe withdrawal rate is ~6.3% at a 90% target success rate under your current return/volatility assumptions.
FIRE Variants Comparison
💰 Your WR budget (before pension)
¥137,581/mo
💰 Your WR budget (after pension at 65)
¥328,126/mo
Portfolio ¥41,734,250 × 4.0% WR = ¥139,114/mo, minus NHI ¥1,532/mo, plus pension ¥202,688/mo (when it starts). This is what Monte Carlo below actually simulates withdrawing — not your stated spending, shown for comparison in Retirement Cash Flow below.
🌿 Lean FIRE
¥4,102,675
✓
spend ¥189,000/mo · withdraw ¥13,675/mo from portfolio
spend ¥189,000/mo · withdraw ¥13,675/mo from portfolio
🔥 Regular FIRE
¥24,296,250
✓
spend ¥270,000/mo · withdraw ¥80,987/mo from portfolio
spend ¥270,000/mo · withdraw ¥80,987/mo from portfolio
💎 Fat FIRE
¥64,796,250
spend ¥405,000/mo · withdraw ¥215,987/mo from portfolio
spend ¥405,000/mo · withdraw ¥215,987/mo from portfolio
⛵ Coast FIRE
¥11,130,392
✓
spend ¥270,000/mo (same as regular)
spend ¥270,000/mo (same as regular)
☕ Barista FIRE
¥24,296,250
✓
spend ¥270,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥80,987/mo from portfolio
spend ¥270,000/mo · +¥0/mo work income · withdraw ¥80,987/mo from portfolio
Retirement Cash Flow
WR Budget (funded lifestyle)
¥1,669,370
Pension Income (net)
−¥2,432,257
NHI Premium (before pension)
¥18,390
NHI Premium (with pension)
¥164,107
Net from Portfolio / yr
¥164,107
This is what Monte Carlo actually simulates withdrawing — the same for every FIRE variant, since it comes from your portfolio and chosen withdrawal rate, not stated expenses.
Year-1 Residence Tax Shock
¥364,400
Your Stated Spending
¥3,240,000
Deemed Withdrawal Rate (pre-pension)
7.8%
vs chosen 4.0%
Projected Balances at Retirement
新NISA
¥65,640,725
Tax-free, fully liquid
iDeCo
¥20,718,152
Accessible at FIRE age
Taxable / Cash
¥10,914,372
Gains taxed at 20.315%
Portfolio Survival — Monte Carlo 100.0% success
Runs 10,000 retirement scenarios with randomised annual returns — each one models a different possible future. The lines and shaded bands below show how your portfolio value spreads across all those outcomes.
Median (p50) — your expected middle outcome; half of all simulations finish above this line
p25–p75 band — the middle 50% of outcomes; a realistic planning range
p10–p90 band — 80% of all scenarios fall inside this range
p90 (green dotted) — optimistic ceiling: only 10% of runs end higher than this
p10 (red dotted) — stress-test floor: only 10% of runs end lower; plan so this stays above ¥0
Japan note:
The success rate above measures whether your chosen withdrawal rate is sustainable — not whether your stated living expenses are covered. Check the deemed withdrawal rate in Retirement Cash Flow to see if your chosen rate actually funds your stated spending.
Simulates drawing ¥1,669,370/yr (4.0% of ¥41,734,250) — not your stated expenses.
MC-implied safe withdrawal rate
~6.3%
(success target: 90%;
chosen: 4.0%)
Sensitivity Analysis Impact on FIRE Surplus %
Each variable in your plan is shifted ±20% from your input value. The bar shows how many years earlier or later you would reach FIRE as a result. Bars at the top have the biggest impact — those are the levers most worth pulling.
Red bars (right →) — pessimistic: this variable getting 20% worse adds years to FIRE
Green bars (← left) — optimistic: this variable improving by 20% removes years from FIRE
Centre line — your current base case; bars extend left and right from here
Japan note:
In Japan, monthly expenses and withdrawal rate typically show the longest bars — they matter more than investment return assumptions. Reducing living costs or lowering your withdrawal rate often shortens your FIRE timeline more than chasing higher returns in Japan's lower-yield environment.
Net Worth Projection
A deterministic year-by-year projection using your fixed return assumptions — not randomised like Monte Carlo. Shows the single expected path: how your portfolio grows while working, and how it draws down in retirement. Hover any point to see the exact portfolio value at that age.
Blue solid line — accumulation phase: your portfolio growing through monthly contributions and investment returns
Amber dashed line — drawdown phase: portfolio being spent in retirement; slope flattens once pension income begins
Japan note:
The drawdown slope accounts for nenkin (年金) income starting at your claim age — offsetting withdrawals and slowing the decline. The first retirement year may show a sharper drop due to the year-1 residence tax shock (住民税), which is billed on the prior year's working income.
Year-by-Year Cash Flow ⬇ CSV
| Age | Phase | WR Budget | Pension | NHI | Education | From Portfolio | Savings | Portfolio | iDeCo (locked) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥38,195,962 | ¥7,101,000 |
| 50 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥41,305,760 | ¥7,732,050 |
| 51 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥44,571,048 | ¥8,394,652 |
| 52 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥47,999,600 | ¥9,090,384 |
| 53 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥51,599,580 | ¥9,820,903 |
| 54 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥55,379,559 | ¥10,587,948 |
| 55 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥59,348,536 | ¥11,393,345 |
| 56 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥63,515,962 | ¥12,239,012 |
| 57 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥67,891,760 | ¥13,126,962 |
| 58 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥72,486,348 | ¥14,059,310 |
| 59 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,476,000 | ¥77,310,665 | ¥15,038,275 |
| 60 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,200,000 | ¥98,407,585 | — |
| 61 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,200,000 | ¥104,527,964 | — |
| 62 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,200,000 | ¥110,954,362 | — |
| 63 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,200,000 | ¥117,702,080 | — |
| 64 | 💼 | — | — | — | - | — | ¥1,200,000 | ¥124,787,184 | — |
| 65 | 🔥 | ¥4,991,487 | ¥2,432,257 | ¥164,107 | - | ¥3,087,737 +住民税 | — | ¥127,314,870 | — |
| 66 | 🔥 | ¥5,066,359 | ¥2,456,579 | ¥166,644 | - | ¥2,776,424 | — | ¥130,267,615 | — |
| 67 | 🔥 | ¥5,142,354 | ¥2,481,145 | ¥169,208 | - | ¥2,830,417 | — | ¥133,299,240 | — |
| 68 | 🔥 | ¥5,219,490 | ¥2,505,956 | ¥171,798 | - | ¥2,885,332 | — | ¥136,412,373 | — |
| 69 | 🔥 | ¥5,297,782 | ¥2,531,016 | ¥174,413 | - | ¥2,941,179 | — | ¥139,609,750 | — |
| 70 | 🔥 | ¥5,377,249 | ¥2,556,326 | ¥177,054 | - | ¥2,997,977 | — | ¥142,894,211 | — |
| 71 | 🔥 | ¥5,457,907 | ¥2,581,889 | ¥179,721 | - | ¥3,055,739 | — | ¥146,268,711 | — |
| 72 | 🔥 | ¥5,539,776 | ¥2,607,708 | ¥182,416 | - | ¥3,114,484 | — | ¥149,736,318 | — |
| 73 | 🔥 | ¥5,622,873 | ¥2,633,785 | ¥185,137 | - | ¥3,174,225 | — | ¥153,300,227 | — |
| 74 | 🔥 | ¥5,707,216 | ¥2,660,123 | ¥187,886 | - | ¥3,234,979 | — | ¥156,963,758 | — |
| 75 | 🔥 | ¥5,792,824 | ¥2,686,724 | ¥190,662 | - | ¥3,296,762 | — | ¥160,730,365 | — |
| 76 | 🔥 | ¥5,879,716 | ¥2,713,592 | ¥193,465 | - | ¥3,359,589 | — | ¥164,603,642 | — |
| 77 | 🔥 | ¥5,967,912 | ¥2,740,728 | ¥196,297 | - | ¥3,423,481 | — | ¥168,587,324 | — |
| 78 | 🔥 | ¥6,057,431 | ¥2,768,135 | ¥199,157 | - | ¥3,488,453 | — | ¥172,685,300 | — |
| 79 | 🔥 | ¥6,148,292 | ¥2,795,816 | ¥202,046 | - | ¥3,554,522 | — | ¥176,901,616 | — |
| 80 | 🔥 | ¥6,240,517 | ¥2,823,774 | ¥204,964 | - | ¥3,621,707 | — | ¥181,240,481 | — |
| 81 | 🔥 | ¥6,334,124 | ¥2,852,012 | ¥207,911 | - | ¥3,690,023 | — | ¥185,706,279 | — |
| 82 | 🔥 | ¥6,429,136 | ¥2,880,532 | ¥210,886 | - | ¥3,759,490 | — | ¥190,303,571 | — |
| 83 | 🔥 | ¥6,525,573 | ¥2,909,338 | ¥213,893 | - | ¥3,830,128 | — | ¥195,037,103 | — |
| 84 | 🔥 | ¥6,623,457 | ¥2,938,431 | ¥216,928 | - | ¥3,901,954 | — | ¥199,911,818 | — |
| 85 | 🔥 | ¥6,722,809 | ¥2,967,815 | ¥219,995 | - | ¥3,974,989 | — | ¥204,932,860 | — |
| 86 | 🔥 | ¥6,823,651 | ¥2,997,493 | ¥223,092 | - | ¥4,049,250 | — | ¥210,105,588 | — |
| 87 | 🔥 | ¥6,926,006 | ¥3,027,468 | ¥226,220 | - | ¥4,124,758 | — | ¥215,435,581 | — |
| 88 | 🔥 | ¥7,029,896 | ¥3,057,743 | ¥229,380 | - | ¥4,201,533 | — | ¥220,928,649 | — |
| 89 | 🔥 | ¥7,135,344 | ¥3,088,320 | ¥232,570 | - | ¥4,279,594 | — | ¥226,590,844 | — |
| 90 | 🔥 | ¥7,242,374 | ¥3,119,204 | ¥235,793 | - | ¥4,358,963 | — | ¥232,428,468 | — |
| 91 | 🔥 | ¥7,351,010 | ¥3,150,396 | ¥238,285 | - | ¥4,438,899 | — | ¥238,448,850 | — |
| 92 | 🔥 | ¥7,461,275 | ¥3,181,900 | ¥240,751 | - | ¥4,520,126 | — | ¥244,658,922 | — |
| 93 | 🔥 | ¥7,573,194 | ¥3,213,719 | ¥243,242 | - | ¥4,602,717 | — | ¥251,065,856 | — |
| 94 | 🔥 | ¥7,686,792 | ¥3,245,856 | ¥245,757 | - | ¥4,686,693 | — | ¥257,677,126 | — |
| 95 | 🔥 | ¥7,802,094 | ¥3,278,314 | ¥248,297 | - | ¥4,772,077 | — | ¥264,500,519 | — |
| 96 | 🔥 | ¥7,919,126 | ¥3,311,098 | ¥250,863 | - | ¥4,858,891 | — | ¥271,544,151 | — |
| 97 | 🔥 | ¥8,037,912 | ¥3,344,209 | ¥253,455 | - | ¥4,947,158 | — | ¥278,816,479 | — |
| 98 | 🔥 | ¥8,158,481 | ¥3,377,651 | ¥256,072 | - | ¥5,036,902 | — | ¥286,326,318 | — |
Current Tax Summary
Income Tax (所得税)
¥169,300
Residence Tax (住民税)
¥288,400
Social Insurance (社会保険)
¥900,000
Effective Rate (tax + SI ÷ gross)
19.4%
Foreigners Mode
Information
No DTA country specified. If your home country has a tax treaty with Japan, set it in your profile to see treaty-specific provisions.
Worldwide income taxation: as a Japan tax resident for ≥5 years, you are taxed in Japan on your worldwide income — including foreign dividends, interest, capital gains, and pension income. Report all foreign income on your 確定申告.
Overseas brokerage/bank assets ¥12,750,000 ($85,000 USD): all income and gains from these accounts must be reported on your Japanese 確定申告. Use the foreign tax credit (外国税額控除) to offset any foreign withholding tax.
Permanent Resident (永住者): you have full NHI eligibility, worldwide income taxation applies, and you are eligible for all Japan pension benefits.
These notes are informational only and not legal or tax advice. Consult a Japan-registered tax accountant (税理士) for your specific situation.